2025 was a wild ride for the markets. Despite all the uncertainty and ups and downs, U.S. stocks still climbed 16.6%, marking a third straight year of double-digit gains. The 10-year Treasury yield ended around 4.15% after some big swings. Now, with key data like December payrolls giving a clearer picture of the labor market, it’s time to step back and ask: what really worked last year, and what didn’t? From all of this, we see three lessons every investor should carry into 2026.
-
Reality Always Wins
Economic fundamentals still set the boundaries. Supply chains don’t change overnight, and extreme policy shifts often meet real-world resistance. Even as markets were whipsawed at times in 2025, these immutable laws helped prevent the most aggressive policy outcomes from fully taking hold and supported rebounds in equities. Recognizing that such forces shape outcomes can help investors avoid overreacting to short‑term headlines and focus on long‑term economic drivers.
-
Mega Forces Trump Traditional Macro Signals
Long‑term structural forces often outweigh conventional macroeconomic indicators. Artificial intelligence (AI) emerged as the dominant force shaping market performance, driving productivity, investment, and growth even as traditional anchors like inflation expectations and fiscal discipline weakened. These mega forces are reshaping economic trends, meaning investors may benefit from emphasizing underlying structural transformation rather than short‑term macro data when positioning portfolios.
-
The Financial System Is Evolving Rapidly
The financial landscape is changing faster than many expect, driven by innovations such as stablecoins and the tokenization of assets. These developments signal shifts in how money moves and how asset ownership is recorded, with implications for payments, liquidity, and access to previously illiquid markets. As adoption grows, investors should understand how these innovations could reshape portfolio construction and market participation in the years ahead.
The Bottom Line: Track Structural Transformation
2025 pushed limits on multiple fronts, policy constraints reshaped expectations, AI and other mega forces powered growth, and financial innovation accelerated. As these themes evolve into 2026, investors who focus on structural transformation, stay informed about emerging forces, and position portfolios with deliberate exposure to long‑term drivers may be better positioned for success. Smart investing remains rooted in disciplined, research‑driven decision‑making, not reacting to short‑term noise but recognizing where lasting changes are unfolding.
References
- BlackRock Investment Institute, Weekly Market Commentary: Three investment lessons for 2026 (2025). BlackRock
- BlackRock Investment Institute, Weekly Market Commentary: Market backdrop including 2025 performance and Treasury yields. BlackRock
- BlackRock Investment Institute, 2026 Investment Outlook (Mega forces and structural themes).
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only
and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations
for any individual. To determine which investment(s) maybe
appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of
future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested
into directly.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall
returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification
does not protect against market risk.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to
maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds
are subject to availability and change in price.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance
of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the
United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in
directly.